DEVELOPMENT OF THE METHODOLOGY FOR THE ANALYSIS OF TRENDS IN THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE POLICE AND BORDER GUARD BOARD

The aim of the study was to develop a methodology for the analysis of the external environment for the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board and to conduct a pilot analysis of the external environment based on this.

The report provides an overview of the trends and dangers arising from uncertainties in the external environment, which are expected to have a significant impact on achieving the goals of the Police and Border Guard Board strategy. The probability of the occurrence of threats, the magnitude of the threat’s impact in the event of the threat’s realization, and the measures to be implemented by the Police and Border Guard Board to cope with the threat’s effects are taken into account.

For each threat, a description of the threat, assessments of the probability of the threat’s realization, impact across different objectives, vulnerability resulting from the threat, and justifications for the assessments are provided. In addition, the risk assessments before and after the vulnerability assessment are shown in terms of sub-objectives. A summary table has been prepared for each hazard and the tables are arranged according to the order of risk levels described previously.

The study was commissioned by the Police and Border Guard Board. . Its implementation was financed by the European Regional Development Fund through the program “Support for sectoral R&D – RITA”.